Valued Customers
LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | HOU | 13.9 | 19.0 | BOOM | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | IND | 20.8 | 22.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | LAC | 17.2 | 18.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | CAR | 9.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jameson Williams | LAR | 13.9 | 17.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | IND | 8.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | DET | 4.2 | 6.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
No urgent adds needed. Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) showing 28% boom on waivers if TE streaming needed. Ka'imi Fairbairn (K, HOU) available as kicker backup. Monitor Philip Rivers Colts situation for potential QB impact on IND defense vs JSN.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 15 sees Valued Customers (8-6) heavily favored against Auto DraftKings (4-10) with a projected 127-100 victory. The lineup features Thursday night starter Bucky Irving vs Atlanta, followed by Sunday's key matchup of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR) hosting Indianapolis in rainy Seattle. Jacoby Brissett gets the nod over Jordan Love based on his 73% historical boom rate despite facing Houston's top-ranked QB defense. The cold weather games in Kansas City (22F) and Chicago (10F) present ball-handling concerns, but the indoor games in New Orleans and Los Angeles provide stable conditions for McMillan and Jameson Williams.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 13.9 | 19.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 15.2 | 14.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 11.7 | 10.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.8 | 22.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.2 | 18.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 11.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | 13.9 | 17.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.5 | 10.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 |
| Devin Singletary (bench) | RB | BE | 10.7 | 11.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 11.0 | 8.0 |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 14.8 | 15.5 |
| Luther Burden III (bench) | WR | BE | 8.1 | 9.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 12.8 | 10.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | 12.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 10.1 | 8.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | QB | 16.1 | --- |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | RB | 16.7 | --- |
| Sean Tucker | RB | RB | 2.9 | --- |
| A.J. Brown | WR | WR | 16.8 | --- |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | WR | 15.7 | --- |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | TE | 8.9 | --- |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.2 | --- |
| Jake Elliott | K | K | 8.0 | --- |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 3.1 | --- |
| C.J. Stroud (bench) | QB | BE | 17.2 | --- |
| Courtland Sutton (bench) | WR | BE | 13.2 | --- |
| David Njoku (bench) | TE | BE | 4.2 | --- |
| Jakobi Meyers (bench) | WR | BE | 11.9 | --- |
| Kenneth Gainwell (bench) | RB | BE | 12.6 | --- |
| Khalil Shakir (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | --- |
| Wan'Dale Robinson (bench) | WR | BE | 14.9 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24], 28% BUST. XGB: 28% boom, 23% bust - agrees MODERATE. @ DEN tough def (rank 6 vs QB), cold 57F. QB19 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 15.5 pts within [9-24].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 19
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 19.3 | ? | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 25.8 | ? | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 19.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM [12-30], only 25% BUST. XGB: 22% boom, 31% bust - DISAGREES. LLM trusts MC historical pattern (3 straight 300+ yd games). @ HOU toughest vs QB (rank 1), but Brissett's personal history strongly BOOM. Mode: BOOM. 19.0 pts within [12-30].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 17
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | ? | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 19.6 | ? | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | 18.7 | ? | +1.9 |
Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 65% MOD [8-20], 19% BOOM, 17% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 51% bust - HIGH BUST WARNING. Thursday vs ATL (rank 20 vs RB) favorable, but XGB sees bust risk. RB11 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (conservative). 14.0 pts within [8-20].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 11
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.1 | ? | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 16.1 | ? | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | 25.5 | ? | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | 13.9 | ? | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | 18.1 | ? | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | 14.5 | ? | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 67% MOD [4-14], 18% BUST, 15% BOOM. XGB: 20% boom, 36% bust. @ SF (rank 17 vs RB), pleasant weather. RB33 ECR poor. Low usage committee. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 8.0 pts within [4-14].
Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 33
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 6.7 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.4 | ? | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [5-18], 27% BOOM, 26% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust - HIGH BUST. First game back from IR Week 14. @ KC tough def (rank 6 vs RB), freezing 22F. Committee with Vidal. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 10.0 pts within [5-18].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 20
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 14.7 | ? | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST [0-6], 22% MOD [5-13], 19% BOOM. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WAS (rank 27 vs RB) favorable matchup. RB28 ECR. Goal-line role helps ceiling. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].
Context: O/U: 47.5 | ECR: 28
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 41% MOD [13-25], 29% BOOM [21-36], 30% BUST. XGB: 13% boom, 21% bust - conservative. vs IND (rank 27 vs WR) EXCELLENT. WR1 ECR! Rain/wind 15mph slight concern. MC/XGB disagree - LLM trusts matchup. Mode: MODERATE (high end). 22.0 pts within [13-25].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 1
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 28.1 | ? | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 4.3 | ? | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | 37.1 | ? | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | 20.6 | ? | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | 20.3 | ? | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | 22.0 | ? | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | 26.3 | ? | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | 30.2 | ? | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | 27.2 | ? | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | 13.0 | ? | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | 20.6 | ? | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | 18.3 | ? | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | 19.4 | ? | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST [2-11], 34% MOD [8-19], 16% BOOM. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. @ NO dome (rank 11 vs WR). WR21 ECR. Rookie, inconsistent. Mode: MODERATE. 12.0 pts within [8-19].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 21
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 11.3 | ? | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [17-31], 31% BUST, 26% MOD. XGB: 32% boom, 29% bust - balanced. vs LAC (rank 2 vs WR) TOUGH defense. Freezing 22F KC. WR7 ECR good. Mode: MODERATE (matchup tempers boom). 18.0 pts within [10-22].
Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 7
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%
XGB (This Week): Boom 31% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 7.4 | ? | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 29.4 | ? | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | 24.1 | ? | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | 9.8 | ? | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | 18.6 | ? | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | 25.5 | ? | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | 23.2 | ? | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [9-22], 24% BOOM, 30% BUST. XGB: 13% boom, 47% bust - warns bust. @ LAR (rank 18 vs WR) decent. WR11 ECR. 4 straight 88+ yard games hot streak. Mode: MODERATE (ride streak). 17.0 pts within [9-22].
Context: O/U: 54.5 | ECR: 11
MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 45% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | ? | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 26.9 | ? | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | 0.0 | ? | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | 19.7 | ? | +7.1 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 55% MOD [6-15], 25% BOOM, 20% BUST (limited data). XGB: N/A (insufficient history). vs CLE (rank 4 vs WR) tough. FREEZING 10F Chicago! Odunze injured = more targets. WR48 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 9.0 pts within [6-15].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 48
MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 11.0 | ? | +0.7 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 42% MOD [5-13], 32% BOOM [10-20], 26% BUST. XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust - warns bust. vs CAR (rank 23 vs TE) favorable. Dome game. TE12 ECR. TE5 since Week 10. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].
Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 7.8 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 8.9 | ? | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | 10.6 | ? | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | 19.2 | ? | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | 12.1 | ? | +3.8 |
Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST [1-8], 40% MOD [6-17], 13% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust - STRONG BUST signal. vs BUF (rank 1 vs TE) WORST matchup. Cold 30F. TE13 ECR. Mode: BUST. 8.0 pts within [1-8] - touching MOD range.
Context: O/U: 49.5 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24], 28% BUST. XGB: 28% boom, 23% bust - agrees MODERATE. @ DEN tough def (rank 6 vs QB), cold 57F. QB19 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 15.5 pts within [9-24].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CHI | 17.6 | 19.3 | ? | +1.6 |
| 13 | DET | 15.7 | 25.8 | ? | +10.0 |
| 12 | MIN | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | NYG | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | PHI | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | CAR | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | PIT | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | ARI | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | CIN | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | DAL | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | CLE | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | WSH | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | DET | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 22%
Notes: MC: 50% BUST [2-11], 34% MOD [8-19], 16% BOOM. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. @ NO dome (rank 11 vs WR). WR21 ECR. Rookie, inconsistent. Mode: MODERATE. 12.0 pts within [8-19].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 11.3 | ? | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 10.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19%
Notes: MC: 43% MOD [6-17], 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 45% boom, 18% bust - bullish! @ HOU (rank 3 vs WR) tough. WR39 ECR very low, heel injury concern. QUESTIONABLE status. Mode: MODERATE (injury risk). 10.0 pts within [6-17].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 12.9 | ? | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%
XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 36%
Notes: MC: 67% MOD [4-14], 18% BUST, 15% BOOM. XGB: 20% boom, 36% bust. @ SF (rank 17 vs RB), pleasant weather. RB33 ECR poor. Low usage committee. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 8.0 pts within [4-14].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 6.7 | ? | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.4 | ? | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%
Notes: MC: 48% BUST [1-8], 40% MOD [6-17], 13% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust - STRONG BUST signal. vs BUF (rank 1 vs TE) WORST matchup. Cold 30F. TE13 ECR. Mode: BUST. 8.0 pts within [1-8] - touching MOD range.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 11.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55%
Notes: MC: 58% BUST [0-6], 22% MOD [5-13], 19% BOOM. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WAS (rank 27 vs RB) favorable matchup. RB28 ECR. Goal-line role helps ceiling. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 12 | DET | 9.9 | 4.7 | ? | -5.2 |
| 11 | GB | 9.6 | 17.7 | ? | +8.1 |
| 10 | CHI | 9.7 | 10.3 | ? | +0.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%
Notes: MC: 55% MOD [6-15], 25% BOOM, 20% BUST (limited data). XGB: N/A (insufficient history). vs CLE (rank 4 vs WR) tough. FREEZING 10F Chicago! Odunze injured = more targets. WR48 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 9.0 pts within [6-15].
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | GB | 10.3 | 11.0 | ? | +0.7 |
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 47% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 19.4 | 19.4 | 47% | 38% | 15% | HIGH | ||
| Dalton Schultz | TE | 9.1 | 9.1 | 29% | 46% | 25% | MEDIUM | ||
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.1 | 8.1 | 28% | 44% | 28% | MEDIUM | ||
| DJ Moore | WR | 10.9 | 10.9 | 18% | 53% | 29% | LOW | ||
| Justin Jefferson | WR | 13.4 | 13.4 | 18% | 60% | 22% | LOW | ||
| Jake Elliott | K | 7.9 | 7.9 | 18% | 28% | 53% | LOW | ||
| Keon Coleman | WR | 9.2 | 9.2 | 16% | 56% | 28% | LOW | ||
| Caleb Williams | QB | 17.0 | 17.0 | 13% | 68% | 19% | LOW | ||
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 8.1 | 8.1 | 12% | 34% | 55% | LOW | ||
| Sean Tucker | RB | 10.1 | 10.1 | 12% | 52% | 36% | LOW | ||
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 10.5 | 10.5 | 11% | 28% | 60% | LOW | ||
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 10.3 | 10.3 | 10% | 34% | 56% | LOW | ||
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 8.6 | 8.6 | 10% | 37% | 54% | LOW | ||
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | 12.2 | 12.2 | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW | ||
| Nick Chubb | RB | 6.9 | 6.9 | 9% | 30% | 61% | LOW | ||
| A.J. Brown | WR | 15.7 | 15.7 | 9% | 35% | 56% | LOW | ||
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | 20.9 | 20.9 | 9% | 36% | 55% | LOW | ||
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 3.0 | 3.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | LOW |
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 23% | BOOM: 45%) | XGB (Boom 47% | Bust 15%)
Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 25%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 28%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 69% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 29%)
Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)
Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 53%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 47% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 28%)
Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 55%)
Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 36%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 60%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 32% | BOOM: 40%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 56%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 54%)
Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 61%)
A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)
Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)
Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.0 | 50% | 19% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.4 | 32% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 10.3 | 29% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 10.5 | 28% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.6 | 28% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.7 | 27% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 7.5 | 27% | 36% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.0 | 24% | 27% | 0.0% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | RB | 11.4 | 22% | 36% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.8 | 21% | 37% | 0.0% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 49% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.8 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.6 | 16% | 56% | 0.0% | |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 16.9 | 14% | 45% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 14.6 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22% | 16% | 56% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.9 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25% | 14% | 45% | |
| Justin Fields | 16.3 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30% | 14% | 48% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.0 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13% | 50% | 19% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.0 | BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3% | 24% | 27% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 11.4 | BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29% | 22% | 36% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.8 | BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24% | 21% | 37% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 8.9 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14% | 8% | 59% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.7 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23% | 27% | 39% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.8 | BUST:39%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:18% | 18% | 46% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 9.8 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12% | 14% | 55% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | 10.0 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 10% | 58% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.7 | BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10% | 10% | 55% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.4 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2% | 32% | 24% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 10.5 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 21% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.9 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 10% | 50% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 10.3 | 29% | 30% | |
| Michael Badgley | 8.6 | 28% | 45% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.5 | 10% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 7.5 | 27% | 36% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 8.8 | 22% | 43% | |
| Dolphins D/ST | 8.8 | 18% | 49% |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.8 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 42.3% | 38.7% | 19.0% | |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.5 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 37.9% | 38.7% | 23.4% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.2 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 31.0% | 39.7% | 29.3% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 14.8 | 15.5 | MODERATE | 28.1% | 50.3% | 21.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 13.2 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 23.8% | 54.2% | 21.9% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 13.9 | 19.0 | BOOM | 23.7% | 44.5% | 31.8% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 10.1 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 19.7% | 44.3% | 36.0% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 15.4% | 26.5% | 58.1% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.9 | 17.0 | MODERATE | 13.6% | 41.0% | 45.4% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 | MODERATE | 13.5% | 28.0% | 58.5% |
| Devin Singletary | RB | 10.7 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 13.3% | 31.9% | 54.8% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.8 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 11.7% | 62.0% | 26.3% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 15.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 11.1% | 38.3% | 50.5% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 11.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 10.6% | 35.6% | 53.9% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 11.0 | 8.0 | BUST | 8.6% | 31.4% | 60.0% |
Win Probability
Floor: -27.4 pts | Median: +15.1 pts | Ceiling: +56.2 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | HIGH | 19.0 | 3.9-27.8 | ↑15+: 64% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 14.0 | 5.3-24.3 | ↑15+: 44% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.7-24.3 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 22.0 | 6.3-30.5 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 18.0 | 6.1-27.8 | ↑15+: 58% | ↓5-: 5% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.0 | 4.0-24.9 | ↑15+: 48% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 11.0 | 2.8-16.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.0-18.3 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 10.0 | 5.1-17.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 9% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 15.5 | 6.6-27.8 | ↑15+: 54% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 8.0 | 2.4-18.8 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Devin Singletary | RB | HIGH | 11.0 | 0.7-18.1 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 53% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 5.4-25.8 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 10.0 | 3.9-21.7 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Luther Burden III | WR | LOW | 9.0 | 7.4-14.8 | ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 8.0 | 3.4-22.1 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 26% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | QB | HIGH | 17.0 | 5.9-29.9 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Jonathan Taylor | RB | HIGH | 20.8 | 8.7-38.4 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Sean Tucker | RB | HIGH | 10.0 | 1.3-27.9 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 37% | |
| Justin Jefferson | WR | HIGH | 13.4 | 5.4-22.8 | ↑15+: 37% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| A.J. Brown | WR | HIGH | 15.7 | 2.7-29.3 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Emeka Egbuka | WR | HIGH | 12.2 | 3.4-24.3 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Dalton Schultz | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.7-17.3 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | MED | 3.0 | 1.4-5.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 90% | |
| Jake Elliott | K | HIGH | 7.9 | 2.3-14.8 | ↑15+: 9% | ↓5-: 32% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | QB | HIGH | 14.3 | 5.2-25.1 | ↑15+: 41% | ↓5-: 9% | |
| Kenneth Gainwell | RB | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.7-24.0 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 35% | |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 4.8-24.5 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Courtland Sutton | WR | HIGH | 12.9 | 5.5-21.8 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Jakobi Meyers | WR | HIGH | 12.5 | 5.3-21.7 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 8% | |
| Khalil Shakir | WR | HIGH | 10.8 | 1.8-20.1 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| David Njoku | TE | HIGH | 9.2 | 3.6-18.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 29% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 19% @ 24.3 | 65% @ 14.2 | 17% @ 5.0 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 29% @ 28.6 | 41% @ 18.7 | 30% @ 7.6 | 18.2 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 43% @ 24.3 | 26% @ 16.0 | 31% @ 7.4 | 16.9 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 27% @ 23.0 | 47% @ 12.0 | 26% @ 4.8 | 13.1 |
| Jason Myers | K | 20% @ 16.9 | 47% @ 11.8 | 33% @ 6.4 | 11.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 32% @ 14.9 | 42% @ 9.1 | 26% @ 3.7 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 24% @ 24.1 | 47% @ 15.7 | 30% @ 5.4 | 14.6 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 73% @ 21.3 | 2% @ 14.7 | 25% @ 5.8 | 17.3 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 22% @ 17.6 | 39% @ 9.2 | 40% @ 4.0 | 8.9 |
Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-4 | 1744.9 | 1548.1 | +196.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 9-5 | 1633.8 | 1645.4 | -11.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 99.9% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 8-6 | 1686.6 | 1445.6 | +241.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W4 | 75.4% |
| 4 | Wookie of the Year | 8-6 | 1601.3 | 1616.8 | -15.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 58.1% |
| 5 | Meat Pistols | 8-6 | 1429.7 | 1471.9 | -42.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 33.2% |
| 6 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 7-7 | 1644.8 | 1620.4 | +24.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 24.5% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-7 | 1610.5 | 1537.4 | +73.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 8.9% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 6-8 | 1536.5 | 1662.1 | -125.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-8 | 1478.5 | 1531.2 | -52.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| 10 | Smooth Roosters | 6-8 | 1471.5 | 1561.6 | -90.1 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | The Warsaw Pact | 5-9 | 1495.1 | 1646.5 | -151.4 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-10 | 1584.9 | 1631.2 | -46.3 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L3 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Torta Pounders Football Club |
| Valued Customers | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Smooth Roosters |
| Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
No urgent adds needed. Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) showing 28% boom on waivers if TE streaming needed. Ka'imi Fairbairn (K, HOU) available as kicker backup. Monitor Philip Rivers Colts situation for potential QB impact on IND defense vs JSN.
No major injury concerns.
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.8 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 13.9 | 19.0 | 0.0 | -19.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.9 | 17.0 | 0.0 | -17.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 14.8 | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.2 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 10.7 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.8 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 | |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 11.7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.5 | 10.0 | 0.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 8.1 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 10.1 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 11.0 | 8.0 | 0.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 4.2 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Justin Jefferson | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | WR | A.J. Brown | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Jonathan Taylor | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Sean Tucker | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Emeka Egbuka | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Caleb Williams | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Schultz | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | K | Jake Elliott | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | QB | Sam Darnold | 0.0 | - | 22.3 | +22.3 |
| Free Agent | RB | Devin Neal | 0.0 | - | 15.4 | +15.4 |
| Opponent | K | Brandon Aubrey | 8.9 | 8.9 | 24.0 | +15.1 |
| Opponent | QB | Patrick Mahomes | 17.9 | 20.1 | 6.3 | -13.8 |
| Opponent | WR | DJ Moore | 9.1 | 11.9 | 0.6 | -11.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.6 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Vikings D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | 15.0 | +8.7 |
| Opponent | RB | Nick Chubb | 5.3 | 7.5 | 0.3 | -7.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +6.7 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +6.1 |
| Opponent | WR | Keon Coleman | 6.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | -5.6 |
| Opponent | TE | Dalton Kincaid | 10.0 | 9.6 | 14.1 | +4.5 |
| Opponent | WR | Malik Washington | 8.4 | 8.2 | 4.0 | -4.2 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.3 | 10.0 | 14.0 | +4.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | -3.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Luther Burden III | 10.3 | 8.0 | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | - | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -2.2 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.6 | 18.0 | 19.3 | +1.3 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | +0.1 |
| Opponent | RB | Ollie Gordon II | 3.2 | 7.8 | 7.7 | -0.1 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Ray Davis | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
| Type | Source | Claim | Actual | Resolution | Verified By |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Luther Burden III | Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST | Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Fallback Triggered |
monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios | Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST | Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering | Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players) | Unk |
Log timestamp: 2025-12-09T17:09:18.193295