75%

Win Probability

+26.7

Projected Margin

CI: [+6.7 to +46.7]

Boom Potential

None

Bust Risk

Juwan Johnson (58%), Omarion Hampton (54%), Rams D/ST (58%), Jameson Williams (45%), Bucky Irving (50%)

Start/Sit Decisions

QB: Start Jacoby Brissett over Jordan Love MC shows Brissett 73% historical BOOM rate vs Love's 23%. Despite tough HOU defense, Brissett's 3 straight 300+ yard games pattern is elite. Love @ DEN (rank 6 vs QB) in cold.

TE: Start Juwan Johnson over Hunter Henry Henry faces BUF (rank 1 vs TE) - worst TE matchup in NFL. XGB shows 60% bust risk. Johnson vs CAR (rank 23) much more favorable, dome game.

FLEX: Start Jameson Williams over Tetairoa McMillan Williams WR11 ECR with 4 straight 88+ yard games. McMillan (rookie) @ NO dome is decent but less consistent. Williams' hot streak wins.

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	HOU	13.9	19.0	BOOM	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	ATL	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	HIGH
RB	Omarion Hampton	KC	11.7	10.0	MODERATE	LOW
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	IND	20.8	22.0	MODERATE	HIGH
WR	Rashee Rice	LAC	17.2	18.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	CAR	9.7	11.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jameson Williams	LAR	13.9	17.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	IND	8.5	10.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Rams D/ST	DET	4.2	6.0	MODERATE	LOW

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 50% boom / 19% bust

ADD Evan Engram (TE) 32% boom / 24% bust

ADD Ka'imi Fairbairn (K) 29% boom / 30% bust

Protected (Playoff Positioning)

Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

No urgent adds needed. Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) showing 28% boom on waivers if TE streaming needed. Ka'imi Fairbairn (K, HOU) available as kicker backup. Monitor Philip Rivers Colts situation for potential QB impact on IND defense vs JSN.

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Week 15 sees Valued Customers (8-6) heavily favored against Auto DraftKings (4-10) with a projected 127-100 victory. The lineup features Thursday night starter Bucky Irving vs Atlanta, followed by Sunday's key matchup of Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1 ECR) hosting Indianapolis in rainy Seattle. Jacoby Brissett gets the nod over Jordan Love based on his 73% historical boom rate despite facing Houston's top-ranked QB defense. The cold weather games in Kansas City (22F) and Chicago (10F) present ball-handling concerns, but the indoor games in New Orleans and Los Angeles provide stable conditions for McMillan and Jameson Williams.

Key Insights

JSN is consensus WR1 this week vs IND (rank 27 vs WR) - 1,428 yards through 13 games leads NFL
Bucky Irving Thursday vs ATL (rank 20 vs RB) in perfect 58F Tampa weather - lock RB1
Jacoby Brissett 73% historical BOOM despite HOU's #1 QB defense - riding hot streak
Hunter Henry faces BUF #1 TE defense with 60% XGB bust - SIT for Juwan Johnson
MHJ QUESTIONABLE (heel) with WR39 ECR vs tough HOU defense - bench candidate
Omarion Hampton first game back from IR, committee with Vidal, freezing @ KC
Weather watch: Seattle rain 75-100% (JSN), Kansas City 22F (Rice/Hampton), Chicago 10F (Burden)

Matchup Status (Week 15)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Auto DraftKings

Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	13.9	19.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	15.2	14.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	11.7	10.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	20.8	22.0
Rashee Rice	WR	WR	17.2	18.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	9.7	11.0
Jameson Williams	WR	RB/WR/TE	13.9	17.0
Jason Myers	K	K	8.5	10.0
Rams D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	4.2	6.0
Devin Singletary (bench)	RB	BE	10.7	11.0
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	11.0	8.0
Jordan Love (bench)	QB	BE	14.8	15.5
Luther Burden III (bench)	WR	BE	8.1	9.0
Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench)	WR	BE	12.8	10.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	13.2	12.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	10.1	8.0

0.0 Starter Actuals

127.0 Remaining Proj

127.0 Est. Total

Opponent: Auto DraftKings

Opponent Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Caleb Williams	QB	QB	16.1	---
Jonathan Taylor	RB	RB	16.7	---
Sean Tucker	RB	RB	2.9	---
A.J. Brown	WR	WR	16.8	---
Justin Jefferson	WR	WR	15.7	---
Dalton Schultz	TE	TE	8.9	---
Emeka Egbuka	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.2	---
Jake Elliott	K	K	8.0	---
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	3.1	---
C.J. Stroud (bench)	QB	BE	17.2	---
Courtland Sutton (bench)	WR	BE	13.2	---
David Njoku (bench)	TE	BE	4.2	---
Jakobi Meyers (bench)	WR	BE	11.9	---
Kenneth Gainwell (bench)	RB	BE	12.6	---
Khalil Shakir (bench)	WR	BE	10.5	---
Wan'Dale Robinson (bench)	WR	BE	14.9	---

0.0 Opp Actuals

100.3 Opp Remaining

100.3 Opp Est. Total

Projected Margin: +26.7 pts

Jordan Love (GB vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.5 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24], 28% BUST. XGB: 28% boom, 23% bust - agrees MODERATE. @ DEN tough def (rank 6 vs QB), cold 57F. QB19 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 15.5 pts within [9-24].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 19

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	19.3	?	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	25.8	?	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	7.1	?	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	17.7	?	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	7.8	?	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	9.0	?	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	28.3	?	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	13.4	?	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	15.0	?	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	26.3	?	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	11.1	?	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	20.9	?	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	15.9	?	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 19.0 (BOOM)

Reasoning: MC: 73% BOOM [12-30], only 25% BUST. XGB: 22% boom, 31% bust - DISAGREES. LLM trusts MC historical pattern (3 straight 300+ yd games). @ HOU toughest vs QB (rank 1), but Brissett's personal history strongly BOOM. Mode: BOOM. 19.0 pts within [12-30].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 17

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 73%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	?	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	19.6	?	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	18.7	?	+1.9

3-game streak of beating projections

Bucky Irving (TB vs ATL)

Projections: ESPN 15.2 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 65% MOD [8-20], 19% BOOM, 17% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 51% bust - HIGH BUST WARNING. Thursday vs ATL (rank 20 vs RB) favorable, but XGB sees bust risk. RB11 ECR. Mode: MODERATE (conservative). 14.0 pts within [8-20].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 11

MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 65% | BOOM: 19%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	NO	16.4	16.1	?	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	16.1	?	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	25.5	?	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	13.9	?	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	18.1	?	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	14.5	?	-2.8

Trending up: 10.7 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.25)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs SF)

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 67% MOD [4-14], 18% BUST, 15% BOOM. XGB: 20% boom, 36% bust. @ SF (rank 17 vs RB), pleasant weather. RB33 ECR poor. Low usage committee. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 8.0 pts within [4-14].

Context: O/U: 44.5 | ECR: 33

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	6.7	?	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.4	?	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	6.5	?	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	8.4	?	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	9.2	?	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	17.2	?	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	7.0	?	-0.8

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.59)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs KC)

Projections: ESPN 11.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [5-18], 27% BOOM, 26% BUST. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust - HIGH BUST. First game back from IR Week 14. @ KC tough def (rank 6 vs RB), freezing 22F. Committee with Vidal. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 10.0 pts within [5-18].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 20

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	PHI	12.1	14.7	?	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0

Averaging 2.1 pts vs 1.7 projected (+21%)
Trending up: 4.9 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 2.65)
Season high: 14.7 pts in Week 14

Devin Singletary (NYG vs WAS)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 58% BUST [0-6], 22% MOD [5-13], 19% BOOM. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WAS (rank 27 vs RB) favorable matchup. RB28 ECR. Goal-line role helps ceiling. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].

Context: O/U: 47.5 | ECR: 28

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
12	DET	9.9	4.7	?	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	17.7	?	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	10.3	?	+0.6

Averaging 8.2 pts vs 7.3 projected (+12%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.93)
Season high: 17.7 pts in Week 11

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs IND)

Projections: ESPN 20.8 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 41% MOD [13-25], 29% BOOM [21-36], 30% BUST. XGB: 13% boom, 21% bust - conservative. vs IND (rank 27 vs WR) EXCELLENT. WR1 ECR! Rain/wind 15mph slight concern. MC/XGB disagree - LLM trusts matchup. Mode: MODERATE (high end). 22.0 pts within [13-25].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 1

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	ATL	20.9	28.1	?	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	4.3	?	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	37.1	?	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	20.6	?	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	20.3	?	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	22.0	?	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	26.3	?	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	30.2	?	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	27.2	?	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	13.0	?	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	20.6	?	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	18.3	?	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	19.4	?	+4.7

Averaging 20.5 pts vs 17.8 projected (+16%)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST [2-11], 34% MOD [8-19], 16% BOOM. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. @ NO dome (rank 11 vs WR). WR21 ECR. Rookie, inconsistent. Mode: MODERATE. 12.0 pts within [8-19].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 21

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	11.3	?	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	11.5	?	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	33.0	?	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	11.0	?	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	8.6	?	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	16.9	?	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	6.3	?	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	17.9	?	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	13.3	?	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	10.2	?	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	7.8	?	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	16.0	?	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	11.8	?	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Rashee Rice (KC vs LAC)

Projections: ESPN 17.2 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% BOOM [17-31], 31% BUST, 26% MOD. XGB: 32% boom, 29% bust - balanced. vs LAC (rank 2 vs WR) TOUGH defense. Freezing 22F KC. WR7 ECR good. Mode: MODERATE (matchup tempers boom). 18.0 pts within [10-22].

Context: O/U: 42.5 | ECR: 7

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 43%

XGB (This Week): Boom 31% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	HOU	17.1	7.4	?	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	29.4	?	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	24.1	?	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	9.8	?	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	18.6	?	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	25.5	?	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	23.2	?	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0

Averaging 10.6 pts vs 9.1 projected (+16%)
Trending up: 20.3 avg (last 3) vs 9.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.11)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs LAR)

Projections: ESPN 13.9 | LLM 17.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 47% MOD [9-22], 24% BOOM, 30% BUST. XGB: 13% boom, 47% bust - warns bust. @ LAR (rank 18 vs WR) decent. WR11 ECR. 4 straight 88+ yard games hot streak. Mode: MODERATE (ride streak). 17.0 pts within [9-22].

Context: O/U: 54.5 | ECR: 11

MC (Historical): BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 45% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	?	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	26.9	?	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	0.0	?	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	19.7	?	+7.1

Averaging 16.0 pts vs 12.8 projected (+25%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.71)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Luther Burden III (CHI vs CLE)

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 55% MOD [6-15], 25% BOOM, 20% BUST (limited data). XGB: N/A (insufficient history). vs CLE (rank 4 vs WR) tough. FREEZING 10F Chicago! Odunze injured = more targets. WR48 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 9.0 pts within [6-15].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 48

MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	GB	10.3	11.0	?	+0.7

Juwan Johnson (NO vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 42% MOD [5-13], 32% BOOM [10-20], 26% BUST. XGB: 15% boom, 60% bust - warns bust. vs CAR (rank 23 vs TE) favorable. Dome game. TE12 ECR. TE5 since Week 10. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].

Context: O/U: 40.5 | ECR: 12

MC (Historical): BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 32%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	TB	9.7	7.8	?	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	8.9	?	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	10.6	?	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	19.2	?	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	12.1	?	+3.8

Averaging 9.8 pts vs 7.5 projected (+31%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.64)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs BUF)

Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 48% BUST [1-8], 40% MOD [6-17], 13% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust - STRONG BUST signal. vs BUF (rank 1 vs TE) WORST matchup. Cold 30F. TE13 ECR. Mode: BUST. 8.0 pts within [1-8] - touching MOD range.

Context: O/U: 49.5 | ECR: 13

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0

Jordan Love (QB) - GB vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 14.8 | LLM 15.5

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 49% | BOOM: 23%

XGB (This Week): Boom 28% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 23% BOOM [17-35], 49% MOD [9-24], 28% BUST. XGB: 28% boom, 23% bust - agrees MODERATE. @ DEN tough def (rank 6 vs QB), cold 57F. QB19 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 15.5 pts within [9-24].

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	CHI	17.6	19.3	?	+1.6
13	DET	15.7	25.8	?	+10.0
12	MIN	17.4	7.1	?	-10.4
11	NYG	16.3	17.7	?	+1.3
10	PHI	17.0	7.8	?	-9.1
9	CAR	18.1	9.0	?	-9.1
8	PIT	17.1	28.3	?	+11.2
7	ARI	17.4	13.4	?	-4.0
6	CIN	19.3	15.0	?	-4.4
5	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
4	DAL	18.6	26.3	?	+7.7
3	CLE	16.0	11.1	?	-4.9
2	WSH	17.6	20.9	?	+3.3
1	DET	14.9	15.9	?	+1.0

Trending up: 17.4 avg (last 3) vs 11.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.53)
Season high: 28.3 pts in Week 8

Tetairoa McMillan (WR) - CAR vs NO

Projections: ESPN 13.2 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 16%

XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 22%

Notes: MC: 50% BUST [2-11], 34% MOD [8-19], 16% BOOM. XGB: 21% boom, 22% bust - balanced. @ NO dome (rank 11 vs WR). WR21 ECR. Rookie, inconsistent. Mode: MODERATE. 12.0 pts within [8-19].

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	11.3	?	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	11.5	?	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	33.0	?	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	11.0	?	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	8.6	?	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	16.9	?	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	6.3	?	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	17.9	?	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	13.3	?	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	10.2	?	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	7.8	?	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	16.0	?	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	11.8	?	-2.1

Trending down: 7.6 avg (last 3) vs 17.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. () - ARI vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 12.8 | LLM 10.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 19%

Notes: MC: 43% MOD [6-17], 31% BUST, 27% BOOM. XGB: 45% boom, 18% bust - bullish! @ HOU (rank 3 vs WR) tough. WR39 ECR very low, heel injury concern. QUESTIONABLE status. Mode: MODERATE (injury risk). 10.0 pts within [6-17].

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	12.9	?	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	14.3	?	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	22.6	?	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	7.8	?	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	5.2	?	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	13.8	?	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	18.6	?	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	7.4	?	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	4.7	?	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	18.1	?	+4.2

Trending down: 4.3 avg (last 3) vs 12.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs SF

Projections: ESPN 10.1 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 18% | MODERATE: 67% | BOOM: 15%

XGB (This Week): Boom 20% | Bust 36%

Notes: MC: 67% MOD [4-14], 18% BUST, 15% BOOM. XGB: 20% boom, 36% bust. @ SF (rank 17 vs RB), pleasant weather. RB33 ECR poor. Low usage committee. Mode: MODERATE (low end). 8.0 pts within [4-14].

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	CLE	8.6	6.7	?	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.4	?	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	6.5	?	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	8.4	?	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	9.2	?	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	17.2	?	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	7.0	?	-0.8

4-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 7.2 avg (last 3) vs 5.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.59)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs BUF

Projections: ESPN 11.0 | LLM 8.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%

Notes: MC: 48% BUST [1-8], 40% MOD [6-17], 13% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 60% bust - STRONG BUST signal. vs BUF (rank 1 vs TE) WORST matchup. Cold 30F. TE13 ECR. Mode: BUST. 8.0 pts within [1-8] - touching MOD range.

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0

Devin Singletary (RB) - NYG vs WAS

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 11.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 58% | MODERATE: 22% | BOOM: 20%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 55%

Notes: MC: 58% BUST [0-6], 22% MOD [5-13], 19% BOOM. XGB: 14% boom, 55% bust. vs WAS (rank 27 vs RB) favorable matchup. RB28 ECR. Goal-line role helps ceiling. Mode: MODERATE. 11.0 pts within [5-13].

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	?	+0.0
12	DET	9.9	4.7	?	-5.2
11	GB	9.6	17.7	?	+8.1
10	CHI	9.7	10.3	?	+0.6

Averaging 8.2 pts vs 7.3 projected (+12%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.93)
Season high: 17.7 pts in Week 11

Luther Burden III (WR) - CHI vs CLE

Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%

Notes: MC: 55% MOD [6-15], 25% BOOM, 20% BUST (limited data). XGB: N/A (insufficient history). vs CLE (rank 4 vs WR) tough. FREEZING 10F Chicago! Odunze injured = more targets. WR48 ECR. Mode: MODERATE. 9.0 pts within [6-15].

Week	Opp	Proj	Actual	Mode	+/-
14	GB	10.3	11.0	?	+0.7

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

Patrick Mahomes (QB): 47% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
Patrick Mahomes	QB	19.4	19.4	47%	38%	15%	HIGH
Dalton Schultz	TE	9.1	9.1	29%	46%	25%	MEDIUM
Malik Washington	WR	8.1	8.1	28%	44%	28%	MEDIUM
DJ Moore	WR	10.9	10.9	18%	53%	29%	LOW
Justin Jefferson	WR	13.4	13.4	18%	60%	22%	LOW
Jake Elliott	K	7.9	7.9	18%	28%	53%	LOW
Keon Coleman	WR	9.2	9.2	16%	56%	28%	LOW
Caleb Williams	QB	17.0	17.0	13%	68%	19%	LOW
Ollie Gordon II	RB	8.1	8.1	12%	34%	55%	LOW
Sean Tucker	RB	10.1	10.1	12%	52%	36%	LOW
Brandon Aubrey	K	10.5	10.5	11%	28%	60%	LOW
Dalton Kincaid	TE	10.3	10.3	10%	34%	56%	LOW
Vikings D/ST	D/ST	8.6	8.6	10%	37%	54%	LOW
Emeka Egbuka	WR	12.2	12.2	9%	36%	55%	LOW
Nick Chubb	RB	6.9	6.9	9%	30%	61%	LOW
A.J. Brown	WR	15.7	15.7	9%	35%	56%	LOW
Jonathan Taylor	RB	20.9	20.9	9%	36%	55%	LOW
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	3.0	3.0	0%	0%	0%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 23% | BOOM: 45%) | XGB (Boom 47% | Bust 15%)

Dalton Schultz: MC (BUST: 43% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 25%)

Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 30% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 28% | Bust 28%)

DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 69% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 29%)

Justin Jefferson: MC (BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 6%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 22%)

Jake Elliott: MC (BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 26%) | XGB (Boom 18% | Bust 53%)

Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 47% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 16% | Bust 28%)

Caleb Williams: MC (BUST: 39% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 19%)

Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 42% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 55%)

Sean Tucker: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 51% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 36%)

Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 60%)

Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 32% | BOOM: 40%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 56%)

Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 54%)

Emeka Egbuka: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 29%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 16%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 61%)

A.J. Brown: MC (BUST: 19% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 37%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 56%)

Jonathan Taylor: MC (BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 25% | BOOM: 24%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 55%)

Commanders D/ST: MC (BOOM: 25% | MODERATE: 55% | BUST: 20%) | XGB (Boom 0% | Bust 0%)

Add/Drop Recommendations with MC Evidence

Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (7): Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Devin Singletary (Elite ceiling (26 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Marvin Harrison Jr. (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Luther Burden III (RB/WR depth (17 pts ceiling)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%50%

Bust%19%

EV12.0

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 40% (8-20) BOOM: 13% (14-28)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%32%

Bust%24%

EV8.4

BUST: 69% (3-9) MODERATE: 29% (9-18) BOOM: 2% (20-32)

ADD Ka'imi Fairbairn K,

Boom%29%

Bust%30%

EV10.3

BUST: 14% (1-7) MODERATE: 51% (5-12) BOOM: 35% (10-20)

ADD Harold Fannin Jr. TE,

Boom%28%

Bust%21%

EV10.5

BUST: 40% (2-8) MODERATE: 44% (7-16) BOOM: 16% (15-27)

ADD Michael Badgley K,

Boom%28%

Bust%45%

EV8.6

BUST: 27% (2-8) MODERATE: 53% (5-12) BOOM: 20% (9-18)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.0	50%	19%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.4	32%	24%	0.0%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	K	10.3	29%	30%	0.0%
Harold Fannin Jr.	TE	10.5	28%	21%	0.0%
Michael Badgley	K	8.6	28%	45%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.7	27%	39%	0.0%
Chiefs D/ST	D/ST	7.5	27%	36%	0.0%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.0	24%	27%	0.0%
Chuba Hubbard	RB	11.4	22%	36%	0.0%
Patriots D/ST	D/ST	8.8	22%	43%	0.0%
Trey Benson	RB	8.8	21%	37%	0.0%
Dolphins D/ST	D/ST	8.8	18%	49%	0.0%
Matthew Golden	WR	8.8	18%	46%	0.0%
Aaron Rodgers	QB	14.6	16%	56%	0.0%
Kyler Murray	QB	16.9	14%	45%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Aaron Rodgers	14.6	BUST:50%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:22%	16%	56%
Kyler Murray	16.9	BUST:17%, MODERATE:58%, BOOM:25%	14%	45%
Justin Fields	16.3	BUST:40%, MODERATE:31%, BOOM:30%	14%	48%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.0	BUST:47%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:13%	50%	19%
Isiah Pacheco	8.0	BUST:68%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:3%	24%	27%
Chuba Hubbard	11.4	BUST:25%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:29%	22%	36%
Trey Benson	8.8	BUST:33%, MODERATE:43%, BOOM:24%	21%	37%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	8.9	BUST:54%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:14%	8%	59%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Garrett Wilson	14.7	BUST:38%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:23%	27%	39%
Matthew Golden	8.8	BUST:39%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:18%	18%	46%
Cooper Kupp	9.8	BUST:50%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:12%	14%	55%
Rashid Shaheed	10.0	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	10%	58%
Keenan Allen	11.7	BUST:67%, MODERATE:24%, BOOM:10%	10%	55%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.4	BUST:69%, MODERATE:29%, BOOM:2%	32%	24%
Harold Fannin Jr.	10.5	BUST:40%, MODERATE:44%, BOOM:16%	28%	21%
Colston Loveland	9.9	BUST:47%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16%	10%	50%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.3	29%	30%
Michael Badgley	8.6	28%	45%
Evan McPherson	9.5	10%	60%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Chiefs D/ST	7.5	27%	36%
Patriots D/ST	8.8	22%	43%
Dolphins D/ST	8.8	18%	49%

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Marvin Harrison Jr.		12.8	10.0	MODERATE	42.3%	38.7%	19.0%
Jason Myers	K	8.5	10.0	MODERATE	37.9%	38.7%	23.4%
Rashee Rice	WR	17.2	18.0	MODERATE	31.0%	39.7%	29.3%
Jordan Love	QB	14.8	15.5	MODERATE	28.1%	50.3%	21.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	13.2	12.0	MODERATE	23.8%	54.2%	21.9%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	13.9	19.0	BOOM	23.7%	44.5%	31.8%
Tyjae Spears	RB	10.1	8.0	MODERATE	19.7%	44.3%	36.0%
Juwan Johnson	TE	9.7	11.0	MODERATE	15.4%	26.5%	58.1%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.9	17.0	MODERATE	13.6%	41.0%	45.4%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	4.2	6.0	MODERATE	13.5%	28.0%	58.5%
Devin Singletary	RB	10.7	11.0	MODERATE	13.3%	31.9%	54.8%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	20.8	22.0	MODERATE	11.7%	62.0%	26.3%
Bucky Irving	RB	15.2	14.0	MODERATE	11.1%	38.3%	50.5%
Omarion Hampton	RB	11.7	10.0	MODERATE	10.6%	35.6%	53.9%
Hunter Henry	TE	11.0	8.0	BUST	8.6%	31.4%	60.0%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 15 | Generated: 2025-12-09 17:09

Matchup Summary

67.6%

Win Probability

+14.7

Expected Margin

127.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

109.2

Opponent (Proj)

32.6

Margin Std Dev

124.1

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -27.4 pts | Median: +15.1 pts | Ceiling: +56.2 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	HIGH	19.0	3.9-27.8	↑15+: 64% \| ↓5-: 14%
Bucky Irving	RB	MED	14.0	5.3-24.3	↑15+: 44% \| ↓5-: 9%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	10.0	3.7-24.3	↑15+: 35% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	22.0	6.3-30.5	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 4%
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	18.0	6.1-27.8	↑15+: 58% \| ↓5-: 5%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	17.0	4.0-24.9	↑15+: 48% \| ↓5-: 15%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	11.0	2.8-16.9	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 23%
Rams D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	6.0	1.0-18.3	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 34%
Jason Myers	K	MED	10.0	5.1-17.1	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 9%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jordan Love	QB	MED	15.5	6.6-27.8	↑15+: 54% \| ↓5-: 6%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	8.0	2.4-18.8	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 27%
Devin Singletary	RB	HIGH	11.0	0.7-18.1	↑15+: 17% \| ↓5-: 53%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	12.0	5.4-25.8	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 8%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	10.0	3.9-21.7	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 16%
Luther Burden III	WR	LOW	9.0	7.4-14.8	↑15+: 8% \| ↓5-: 3%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	8.0	3.4-22.1	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 26%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Caleb Williams	QB	HIGH	17.0	5.9-29.9	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 6%
Jonathan Taylor	RB	HIGH	20.8	8.7-38.4	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 0%
Sean Tucker	RB	HIGH	10.0	1.3-27.9	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 37%
Justin Jefferson	WR	HIGH	13.4	5.4-22.8	↑15+: 37% \| ↓5-: 7%
A.J. Brown	WR	HIGH	15.7	2.7-29.3	↑15+: 47% \| ↓5-: 15%
Emeka Egbuka	WR	HIGH	12.2	3.4-24.3	↑15+: 34% \| ↓5-: 23%
Dalton Schultz	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.7-17.3	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 30%
Commanders D/ST	D/ST	MED	3.0	1.4-5.0	↑15+: 0% \| ↓5-: 90%
Jake Elliott	K	HIGH	7.9	2.3-14.8	↑15+: 9% \| ↓5-: 32%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
C.J. Stroud	QB	HIGH	14.3	5.2-25.1	↑15+: 41% \| ↓5-: 9%
Kenneth Gainwell	RB	HIGH	10.1	1.7-24.0	↑15+: 22% \| ↓5-: 35%
Wan'Dale Robinson	WR	HIGH	12.5	4.8-24.5	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 11%
Courtland Sutton	WR	HIGH	12.9	5.5-21.8	↑15+: 35% \| ↓5-: 7%
Jakobi Meyers	WR	HIGH	12.5	5.3-21.7	↑15+: 32% \| ↓5-: 8%
Khalil Shakir	WR	HIGH	10.8	1.8-20.1	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 26%
David Njoku	TE	HIGH	9.2	3.6-18.1	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 29%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	19% @ 24.3	65% @ 14.2	17% @ 5.0	14.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	29% @ 28.6	41% @ 18.7	30% @ 7.6	18.2
Rashee Rice	WR	43% @ 24.3	26% @ 16.0	31% @ 7.4	16.9
Omarion Hampton	RB	27% @ 23.0	47% @ 12.0	26% @ 4.8	13.1
Jason Myers	K	20% @ 16.9	47% @ 11.8	33% @ 6.4	11.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	32% @ 14.9	42% @ 9.1	26% @ 3.7	9.6
Jameson Williams	WR	24% @ 24.1	47% @ 15.7	30% @ 5.4	14.6
Jacoby Brissett	QB	73% @ 21.3	2% @ 14.7	25% @ 5.8	17.3
Rams D/ST	D/ST	22% @ 17.6	39% @ 9.2	40% @ 4.0	8.9

League Standings

Week 15 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-4	1744.9	1548.1	+196.8	0.0 vs 0.0	W3	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	9-5	1633.8	1645.4	-11.6	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	99.9%
3	Valued Customers ←	8-6	1686.6	1445.6	+241.0	0.0 vs 0.0	W4	75.4%
4	Wookie of the Year	8-6	1601.3	1616.8	-15.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	58.1%
5	Meat Pistols	8-6	1429.7	1471.9	-42.3	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	33.2%
6	Ryan's Rowdy Team	7-7	1644.8	1620.4	+24.4	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	24.5%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-7	1610.5	1537.4	+73.1	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	8.9%
8	Moms rules	6-8	1536.5	1662.1	-125.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
9	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-8	1478.5	1531.2	-52.7	0.0 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%
10	Smooth Roosters	6-8	1471.5	1561.6	-90.1	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	The Warsaw Pact	5-9	1495.1	1646.5	-151.4	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-10	1584.9	1631.2	-46.3	0.0 vs 0.0	L3	0.0%

Week 15 Matchups

Away Team		Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	@	Moms rules
4th and pinches	@	Torta Pounders Football Club
Valued Customers	@	Auto DraftKings
Wookie of the Year	@	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Meat Pistols	@	Smooth Roosters
Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	@	The Warsaw Pact

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Waiver Wire Notes

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Week 15 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

12.5

Our Team MAE

16 players

0.0

Opponent MAE

18 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.9

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Error
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.8	22.0	-22.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	13.9	19.0	-19.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.2	18.0	-18.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.9	17.0	-17.0
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	14.8	15.5	-15.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	-14.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.2	12.0	-12.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	11.0	-11.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	10.7	11.0	-11.0
Our Team		Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.8	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	11.7	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.5	10.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	8.1	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	10.1	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	11.0	8.0	-8.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	4.2	6.0	-6.0
Opponent	QB	Patrick Mahomes	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	D/ST	Vikings D/ST	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	WR	DJ Moore	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Nick Chubb	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Ollie Gordon II	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	WR	Keon Coleman	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	WR	Malik Washington	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	TE	Dalton Kincaid	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	K	Brandon Aubrey	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	WR	Justin Jefferson	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	WR	A.J. Brown	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Jonathan Taylor	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Sean Tucker	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	WR	Emeka Egbuka	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	QB	Caleb Williams	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	TE	Dalton Schultz	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	K	Jake Elliott	0.0	-	+0.0
Opponent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	0.0	-	+0.0

Week 14 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_013 (2025-12-08)

2.3

Our Team MAE

16 players

7.0

Opponent MAE

10 players

13.6

Free Agent MAE

3 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 5.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	QB	Sam Darnold	0.0	-	22.3	+22.3
Free Agent	RB	Devin Neal	0.0	-	15.4	+15.4
Opponent	K	Brandon Aubrey	8.9	8.9	24.0	+15.1
Opponent	QB	Patrick Mahomes	17.9	20.1	6.3	-13.8
Opponent	WR	DJ Moore	9.1	11.9	0.6	-11.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.6
Opponent	D/ST	Vikings D/ST	5.2	6.3	15.0	+8.7
Opponent	RB	Nick Chubb	5.3	7.5	0.3	-7.2
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	12.1	8.0	14.7	+6.7
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.9	22.0	28.1	+6.1
Opponent	WR	Keon Coleman	6.7	9.2	3.6	-5.6
Opponent	TE	Dalton Kincaid	10.0	9.6	14.1	+4.5
Opponent	WR	Malik Washington	8.4	8.2	4.0	-4.2
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.3	10.0	14.0	+4.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	6.8	9.0	6.0	-3.0
Our Team	WR	Luther Burden III	10.3	8.0	11.0	+3.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Commanders D/ST	0.0	-	3.0	+3.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.7	10.0	7.8	-2.2
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.3
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.6	18.0	19.3	+1.3
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	16.4	16.0	16.1	+0.1
Opponent	RB	Ollie Gordon II	3.2	7.8	7.7	-0.1
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	15.3	19.0	19.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.8	17.3	17.3	+0.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
Opponent	RB	Ray Davis	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 15 Discrepancy Log

Type	Source	Claim	Actual	Resolution	Verified By
`Fallback Triggered`	monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios	Expected cluster data for Luther Burden III	Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering	Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players)	Unk
`Fallback Triggered`	monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios	Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST	Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering	Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players)	Unk
`Fallback Triggered`	monte_carlo_projection.generate_auto_scenarios	Expected cluster data for Commanders D/ST	Only 1 games played - insufficient for k-means clustering	Using mean±std approximation (expected for new players)	Unk

Log timestamp: 2025-12-09T17:09:18.193295